Here is how I see it.
It reminds me of the Rock, Scissors, Paper game.
In the Big 3, before 2011 Fed could beat everyone except Rafa. When Novak hit stride in 2011 and forward, Rafa couldn't touch him on HC but Rafa can beat everyone including Fed.
Now, Med may become a problem for Novak as he has shown, but it has still been 9 years since Rafa has taken a set from Novak. So, if the draw had Novak facing Rafa anywhere in the draw, even the finals, the odds were his.
How were the odds changed?
It moved Rafa's chance to win the whole thing from less than 20% to 50%. And because of how games line up, it took Med's chance from say 40-50 % against Novak to 25% against Rafa. Against Med, even. Knocking Novak out of it took him from a 50-70% depending on the draw, to Zero.
